Daniel Schoeman

The global macroeconomic backdrop remains fraught with uncertainty as geopolitical tension, particularly from renewed US tariff actions, clouds visibility on trade and policy. While capital markets have rebounded from oversold conditions, investor sentiment remains fragile amid elevated volatility and looming earnings downgrades.

We maintain a cautious 6-12 month outlook, with an appropriate balance between cash, short-duration bonds and equities in multi-asset portfolios. US equities appear especially vulnerable, given extended valuations, peaking earnings momentum and policy-induced stagflation risks. In contrast, the euro area and emerging market equities offer more attractive relative value, supported by favourable currency trends and less aggressive policy headwinds.

Bond markets reflect diverging rate expectations, with aggressive cuts priced into US yields. We still maintain that inflation risks remain underappreciated and that we expect a better opportunity in the near future to increase our exposure to longer-duration bonds.

Gold remains supported by central bank diversification and US dollar weakness. The dollar’s oversold status may prompt a near-term bounce, but the broader trend remains downward.

In this environment, diversification and risk-aware positioning are important. We remain diversified, alert to tactical opportunities as policy clarity and market direction evolve.

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